Улс төр дэх орон зайн тулаан-2

-Өнөөдрийн Ардчилсан нам стратегич С.Баярын “үхлийн тэврэлт”-эд байна. Тэр Ардчилсан намтай биш намын дотоод фракц бүлэглэлүүдтэй тохирч сайдын суудлыг хувааж өгсөнөөр энэ намын удирдлагыг задалж, жалгын нэг болгож чадсан юм-

Орчин үеийн улс төрийн менежментийн ухаанд орон зайн тухай ойлголт илүү чухал болж намууд ямар стратеги барихаас шалтгаалж тэд шахагдаж эсвэл тэлж байдаг амьд үйл явц болсон тухай Монголын жишээн дээр бичсэнээс хойш найман сар өнгөрсөн байна. Монголын парламентийн ээлжит сонгууль дөхөж сонгуулийн хуулийн шинэчлэл хэлэлцэгдэж дуусч байгаа боловч хэчнээн цаг хугацаа, орон зайг туулан ямар үр дүнд хүрэхийг Балхжав гуай мэт би таашгүй.

Харин мэргэжлийн хүний хувьд тааж, шинжилж чадах зүйл бол өнөөгийн намуудын стратеги ямар түвшинд өөрийн орон зайгаа бүрдүүлж буй тухай хоёр дахь ажиглалтаа залуусдаа хүргэж байна. Авах нэг санааг нь аваад хаях нэгийг нь хаяна биз дээ.

МАН-ын стратеги

Орон зайгаа алгуурхан алдсаар хоёрдугаар байр луу эрчимтэй явж байгаа хэмээсэн өмнөх дүгнэлт маань харин ч хожимдсон байсныг МАН-ны өөрийнх нь Нийгмийн ардчилал судалгааны дүн задарснаар илэрч аль хэдийнээ хоёрт жагссан байсан аж. Өнөөдөр энэ намын менежмент төрийн албанд тухалсан саятан түшмэдүүдээс уул уурхайн баялаг дээр суурилсан тэрбумтан олигархиудын гарт маш хурдтай шилжиж байна. Яг үнэндээ цөөн гэр бүлийн олигархиуд Монголын хамгийн ууган бас тусгаар тогтнолын баталгаа болсон гэх түүхэн бахархалтай энэ намыг худалдан авч байна.

Олигархиудын зорилго тун энгийн бөгөөд шулуухан гэж би судлаачийн хувьд харддаг. МАН-д санхүүгийн туслалцаа үзүүлснээр энэ нам сонгуульд оролцохдоо төрийн халамжийн мөнгө болон олигархиудын мөнгөөр сонгогчиддоо нөлөөлж ялалт байгуулна. Харин олигархиуд засаг барьсан намаас уул уурхай тэргүүтэй бизнесдээ монополь эрх тогтоолгож хамгийн их хожлыг авна. Газрын баялаг ихтэй дэлхийн ихэнх улсуудын олгирхиуд ингэж л улс төр хийдэг учраас би МАН-ын олигархи гэр бүлүүдийг өөрөөр байна гэж итгэхгүй байна. Залуус бид ядаж л хөрш Оросын бизнесийн орчинг бодитоор харчихад л ийм жишээг заавал Латин Америк, Африкийн олон сонгодог жишээг дурдах шаардлагагүй болно.

Саяхан дэлхийн социал демократуудын хурал Монголд яагаад болсон тухай УИХ-ын гишүүн С.Баяр сэтгүүлчдэд тайлбарлахдаа “Социал демократ хөдөлгөөн Ази, Африк, Латин Америкт хүчээ авч байна. Бас Монголыг үнэлж байна” гэжээ.

Хэдийгээр рейтинг нь байнга уруудаж байгаа боловч МАН Монголын хамгийн том, нөлөө бүхий нам хэвээрээ л байна. Хүссэн ч эс хүссэн ч энэ нам ардчилсан Монголын Улс төрийн түүхийг бичилцэж сайн муу үр дагаваруудыг Монголын нийгэмд цаашид “бүтээснээсээ ч ихийг бүтээсээр” байх болно. Чадалтай, эрдэм боловсролтой залуусын хангалттай хүний нөөцтэй нам.

Харин 2012 оны сонгуулийн хувьд Сү.Батболд хэрвээ сонгуулийн дээрх стратегиа өөрчлөхгүй бол ялалт байгуулах ямар ч боломжгүй. Учир нь өнөөдрийн Монголын нийгмийн баялгийн хуваарилалт шударга бусаар явагдаж, хэдхэн тооны олигархиуд бүхнийг сорж яг л анхны хуримтлалын үеийн зэрлэг капитализм мэт байгааг шийдэж чадахгүй эрх баригч хүчин байгаа төдийгүй дэмжиж оролцоод байгаа учраас л намынх нь рейтинг бүх түүхэндээ хамгийн доор ортлоо унаж байгаа билээ. Ядаж л шударга бус нь илэрсээр буй шударга нэг сайдаасаа ерөнхийлөгчийн сонгуулиар гуравдах ерөнхийлөгчид хэрэглэсэн “С.Баярын унагах арга”-ыг дахин ашиглаад ч болов салчихвал нэр хүндээ эргүүлэн өсгөх боломж байгаа.

Ардчилсан намын стратеги

Судалгааны дүнгүүдээр Ардчилсан нам өнөөдөр түүхэндээ анх удаа МАН-ын өмнө гарч ирсэн тухай намын даргынх нь тайлбар бол үнээн. Гэхдээ хоёр хувиар. Америкийн ерөнхийлөгчийн сонгуулийн дүнг алдалгүй таадгаараа домог болсон Алдарт Галлапийн захиж хэлсэнээр долоо хүртэл хувийн дотор байгаа өрсөлдөгчид бол ямар ч ялгаагүй гэсэн байдаг. 2008 оны парламентийн сонгуулиас өмнө 25 хувьтай байсан Ардчилсан нам өнөөдөр 15 хувьтай болсоныг ч өсөлт гэж хэлэхэд бас хэцүү. Тиймээс өнөөдөр Ардчилсан намын статус МАН-тай яг адилхан нөхцөлд уруудаж орон зайгаа алдаж байна.

Ардчилсан намын өнөөдрийн баримталж буй стратеги бол …ямар ч стратеги байхгүй байх явдал юм болов уу л гэж судлаачийн хувьд таахаас хэтэрч чадахгүй байна. Учир нь намын даргаас гарч буй бодлогын чанартай байж магад мессежэд мониторинг хийхэд улс төрийн намын дарга бус Зам Тээвэр барилга хот байгуулалтын яамны хэвлэлийн төлөөлөгч гэж андуурахаар хэмжээний төмөр зам, орон сууцжуулалт, Сайншандын аж үйлдвэр гэсэн хэдхэн сэдэвт эргэлдэж байна. Ядаж байхад эдгээр нь бүтэлгүй болж байгаа тухай Ардчилсан намын гишүүн, салбарын сайдынх нь ярилцлага өнгөрсөн долоо хоногт хэвлэлд гарчихлаа.

Өнөөдрийн Ардчилсан нам үе үеийн гишүүдийнхээ мөрөөдөлд ч байгаагүй ялах боломж дээр байгаа. Өрсөлдөгч гол нам нь түүхэндээ байгаагүй нийгмийн дэмжлэггүй болж, дотроо хагарч хуваагдаж байна. Тэдний алдсан орон зайг нөхөж хамж авсанаар Монголын хамгийн том нам болох боломж магадгүй ганц энэ цаг үед л байгаа.

Улс төрийн технологид “үхлийн тэврэлт” гэдэг нэр томъёог зарим судлаачид ашигладаг. Уг гарвал нь Америкийн Аноконда хэмээх геополитикийн уламжлалт ойлголт бөгөөд улс төрийн менежментэд зээлдэж хэрэглэсэн юм. Америкчууд аливаа улсыг унагахдаа түүнийг тойруулан Анокандо могой ороох мэт төмөр цагиргийг үүсгэж бусад дэмжигчид, дэлхийн зах зээл, түүхий эд зэргээс тасдаж муужруулахын сацуу өдөж зэвсэглэлээр хэт хөөцөлдөх мэтийн тухайн улсын чадлаас хэтэрсэн том хэрүүлд татан оруулж бүрэн дампууруулдаг. Ийм сонгодог жишээ нь Зөвлөлтийг унагасан түүхийг гэлцэх юм билээ.

Харин өнөөдрийн Ардчилсан нам стратегич С.Баярын “үхлийн тэврэлт”-эд байна. Тэр Ардчилсан намтай биш намын дотоод фракц бүлэглэлүүдтэй тохирч сайдын суудлыг хувааж өгсөнөөр энэ намын удирдлагыг задалж, жалгын нэг болгож чадсан юм. Үр дүнд нь Ардчилсан нам Засгийн газрын ажилд намын нэгдсэн бодлогогүй оролцож томилогдсон сайдуудынх нь санаачилсан ажил кабинет дээрээ унаж, үгүй бол үлдсэн зарим нь МАН-ын сурталчилгааны ажлыг хариуцдаг болсон байна.

Тиймээс одоо Ардчилсан намын даргын хийх ёстой хамгийн чухал ажил бол ирэх сонгуульд оролцох намын стратегийг боловсруулж түүн дээрээ сайд нар, бүлгийн гишүүдээ нэгтгэх ёстой. Энэ бол Н.Алтанхуяг гэдэг шадар сайдын ажил биш, Ардчилсан намын даргын хийх ёстой ажил юм. Сүүлийн үед эдийн засгийн хувьсгал хэмээн сурталчлах болсоныг харвал Н.Алтанхуяг дарга ирэх сонгуульд энэ томъёогоо дахин гол мөрийн хөтөлбөрөө болгон тавьж, дотор нь нөгөө улигт төмөр зам, Тавантолгой, Сайншандын аж үйлдвэрийн цогцолбороо ярьсаар л гүйж явах эрсдэл харагдаад эхэллээ. Эрсдэл гэхийн учир нь хэрвээ ийм стратегитэй орвол 100 хувь ялагдана. Иргэдэд энэ сэдэв чухал, улс орон залйшгүй хийх бүтээн байгуулалт боловч намд үл итгэх итгэгчдийн савлагаа 60 хувьд хүрчихсэн байхад хуучин сэдэв төдийгүй нэгэнт эхэлчихсэн бүтэл муутай байгаа сэдвийг гол болгож ярих нь шууд мөхөл.

Хэрвээ сайн сонгуулийн стратеги боловсруулж намын хүний нөөцөө зөв ашиглаж чадвал ирэх сонгуульд Ардчилсан нам ялах магадлал бий. Ядаж л сонгуулийн булхай луйвар илт гарах нь автомат тооллогын систем, хүн амын бүртгэлтэй холбоотой багасч байна. Ийм боломжийг ашиглахгүй бол тэр хамгийн сайн нөхцөлд хамгийн муу ажилласан намын дарга болж үлдэнэ. Гэвч тэгээсэй гэж хэн хүсэх билээ, ажиллах л хэрэгтэй.

Харин дараагийн удаа залуустайгаа намуудын харилцааны элемент буюу мессеж ямар байгаа талаар саналаа солилцохоор төлөвлөчихсөн байгаа шүү.

If I were Mitt Romney's campaign PR manager ...

First. Situation analysis

I think, if someone takes a snapshot of GOP candidates to know their current situation in running process of 2012 presidential campaign right now, we would see their smiley faces on that picture. The reason why I'm saying this is because Gallup survey result shows that 46 percent of Americans said they will vote for GOP candidate, but just 38 percent said they will support president Barack Obama. In my opinion, Americans', who are the voters know about poll culture, choice wouldn't switch drastically. Therefore president Obama is using strategy for straw voters while GOP candidates are concerning more about primary voters.

GOP candidates' campaign strategy seems like it's for choose next president right now rather than choose right candidate based on their debates. Although this might be right strategy, on the other side, they are not giving much information to the GOP primary voters about most concerned issues like how they can fix the American economic situation and what would be their specific plan. Instead they are talking more about general and traditional issues such as social security, immigration, gay lesbian marriage and gender etc.; and concerning on their personal image.

I think Cain changed this situation by announcing his 999 economic plan before anyone announce their plan and that's what made him one of the top candidates with Mitt Romney

But latest information about sexual harassment issue of Cain will definitely influence his rank because main republican voters are older people who have traditional viewpoint on this kind of issues than democratic voters.

MITT ROMNEY

While Cain starts to struggle with these issues, Romney will be the top candidate who has been most stable and has higher percent of support than the others and the only one has 66 percent of support from Republicans based on this current situation. I think during the series debates of GOP candidates, person who expressed his idea clearly and defined himself to the voters positively was Cain, in contrast, person who failed the big opportunity and lowered his rank was Rick Perry. But Mitt Romney, whom I chose, is the candidate who has been keeping his rating most stable. However in some debates he seems little angry or losing control due to many reasons such as all candidates are fighting with him; and he is receiving more media attack, then Cain has become close to him, in general he is polling well[2].

Mitt Romney's BRAND

Majority, or 44[3] percent of voters who participated in Gallup survey think that Mitt Romney is the best GOP candidate who can run against Obama. This can be the frame to create Mitt Romney's brand. If we look at several surveys or polls such as Gallup, Pew Research center, Washington Post, New York Times, Romney's rating was most stable compared to the other candidates. I think what this saying is GOP voters are not only giving point on his one or two unique skills but also they value him positively from many other sides. In this case, he should create brand that Mitt Romney is the top manager who can represent Republicans best as GOP primary voters think.

Mitt Romney strengths

1. MBA degree of business in Harvard. He is the only one GOP candidate who has MBA. So he is the professional manager who could solve the American economic problems.

2. Intelligence. Polls survey and thoughts of voters "Romney is smart" is in computable to Barack Obama. This is very important score.

3. Good biography. His advantage is having very clean history such as his family history, having big family, worked as governor of the Massachusetts well, highly educated. Therefore most GOP female voters, specially housewives like him much according to Gallup survey.

4. Trusted organizer, or manager. He organized 2002 winter olympic in Salt Lake city very good, also he is the one of the best businessmen and investors.

Mitt Romney weaknesses.

1. He is Mormon.

His religion has a big impact on some of GOP voters, especially those protestant GOP voters. They don't think that Mormon is part of Christian religion or related to it and don't like Mormon. Republicans (52 percent) and self-identified Tea Party members (52 percent) were more likely to say Romney is Mormon than independent voters (41 percent) or Democrats (36 percent)[4].

2. Support to Health Care.

In 2010, Romney raised money and endorsed dozens of GOP candidates that supported repeal of President Obama's March 2010 health-care reform that he attacks as a "government takeover[5]. Of course, this doesn't sound good to GOP voters so that it could be the one reason that they can't trust Romney anymore.

3. Message is not clear.

Even though GOP voters think Romney is the candidate who can potentially compete to Obama, they haven't heard any clear and specific message from Romney why they should choose him. This could risk him not to get GOP supporters' vote continually but may be votes will decrease. Right now his rate decreased by 3 percent[6].

4. He is not like conservative.

Majority of GOP primary voters, 49 percent, think GOP candidate have to be veteran. Unfortunately Romney doesn't have any history about in this field so that can influence bad for him. The reason can be that he is not the right candidate who has GOP traditional image.

Second. Mitt Romney's fundraising.

He is the one who is doing most successful fundraising up until now from the GOP candidates. Currently he is in second, after president Obama by his fundraising money, which is more than 32 million dollars[7]. In both Florida and Nevada, Romney nearly doubled the president‚ despite a crowded field of Republican candidates who are also vacuuming up donations[8]. His federal political action committee is called Free and Strong America PAC. In my opinion, it's not that good sign that big corporations, banks /specially Wall Street companies/ are supporting him because he is the one who might defeat. Most considerable thing is that small donations are taking 10[9] percent of his donation fund which I could explain it related to the economic situationin one hand. On the other hand, it might be showing that support of individual voters isn't good enough. For instance, Cain, who is in the same condition, has more support of small individuals which is taking 50 percent of his collected money. This is the advantage for him because fundraising measures voters real support and those who donate money for candidates are the real honest supporters. Based on this, I think Mitt Romney's fundraising campaign target should be small individuals.

Mitt Romney's structural factors

On his calendar it will be the same as the other GOP candidates, GOP early primary schedule is finally set: Iowa on Jan. 3, New Hampshire on Jan. 10, South Carolina on Jan. 21, and Florida on Jan. 31. Romney of course is best in New Hampshire, but since that is one of his several home states, a big NH win is a requirement for him, not a bonus.[10] I read that from Thanksgiving to Christmas time no one will be interested in politics. So for Romney, to schedule his calendar I would suggest him avoid from big meetings, instead attend on holiday series of interesting TV shows. In that shows, he should talk less about politics, but talk about his family, education, olympic or governor years simply. For the already scheduled events or meetings he should be careful about two things. First, having very good personal conversations with those people who in the events. Secondly, he has to listen their problem, idea and words.

Role of outside groups

Most influenced group is people who support Obama and they are focusing on Mitt Romney now. They are sending digital messages and post video attacking against Romney by using web pages, YouTube Facebook, Twitter etc., The main idea of that video is that to convince people if Romney becomes president he will work for richer people, not for the middle class.[11] But I don't think this could impact badly to Romney in current situation, in contrast, it would be helpful to GOP primary voters to unite and support.

PACs. For any Republican candidate PACs is the one that definitely in use outside group; therefore, candidates succeed when they work with PACs closely even though there are many critics around them. The reason is they 're very close relationship to GOP primary voters. This being told, for Romney, his donors are supporting these PACs groups. My thought is that these PACs have good impact to send Romney's message to the GOP primary voters. Especially, those PACs who supports idea of bring back American dream and support for conservatism.

Third. Message analysis & strategy

I like message of Mitt Romney, which is about strongest nation. To GOP primary voters this message will definitely be likeable as well. Still, not only voters all around the world, but also American voters has been changing a lot because their problems has changed a lot since Cold War. For example, in my opinion, GOP voters think that strongest nation means in economically at first. Therefore these would be my best align issues:

1. To create American dream again, first need to solve economic problem

2. To stay as strongest nation, have to refresh economy

3. Every citizen of the strongest nation has to be employed

Then these would be my opposition align issues:

1. Can't refresh economy service by socialism

2. Need to recommend new solution as a politician

3. U.S economic crisis getting deeper

Structural factors are those related to the candidate or his campaign, and external are those related to things that do not depend on the candidates: the strategies of the other campaigns, the financial situation...

3. I would say that a PAC is an outside group an also an "interested" group, because somehow they raise

So the core issue that would relate to GOP primary voters is going to be the message, which says we have to refresh economy and create great America again. Then motivate issues would be bring back the American dream. Also we will send message that democratic and socialist like Obama are destroying this nation. In reality, for GOP primary voters, most possible GOP candidate who can bring back American dream and refresh economy is Mitt Romney. He is strong leader that voters like and top business manager. To make them understand this message will be our main strategy.

I think current media also can help me to send this message. They are most interested in what kind of plans GOP candidates will introduce to refresh or rebuild the economy, otherwise they are bored from traditional messages and strategies of GOP candidates. So as a candidate who has MBA, top manager, who can compete with Obama media will waiting his message and ready to discuss about it.

I am planning to use news media play Mitt Romney can build better plan than the others according to his education level, MBA. But we need to start wide discussion on that plan, what may be the new solution could be.

TV AD

POSITIVE AD#1

Background: There will be seen huge building which has American flag. There will be family who has two daughters, three sons, and six grandchildren sitting together. They will tell words one by one looking at the camera.

Mother says,

I'm Republican. I think someone who has professional education can rebuild American economy. Candidate I will choose has to have well educated in business.

One of the sons says,

I will support intelligent leader because that person will make decision on behalf of me.

Father says,

I will be with trusted organizer. They know what they have to do in hard times. The American dream must come back.

Two daughters together say,

We're Republicans. We will support someone real leader who can be leader of the team. It's important that we have to have leader who knows our value.

Our family, let's choose

MBA BUSINESSMAN

INTELLEGENT ROMNEY.

TRUSTED ORGANIZER

TEAM OF LEADER

People say: MITT MEANS BELIEVE IN STRONG AMERICA

TV AD #2.

Background ; There is American flag is raising. There is scene of sunsetting. Then there will be shots of current American economis crisis situation and Obama.

Man says: America is getting weaker, we're losing our greatness. We won Soviet Union and world socialists in Cold War. But now we defeated by American socialist and our nation has destroyed in their hand.

Background ; GOP candidate, election, supporters, voters’ shots shown in 10 seconds.

Man says: GOP all candidates are intelligent, skilled, talented best leaders. But let's divide them if they can win Obama, who is the symbol of American socialism.

Background: There will be sentence says "There is no one seen other than Mitt Romney" on black scene and will finish.

Radio AD.

Mitt Romney's radio ad would be text says " Four reasons to choose Mitt Romney" which has editors explanation.

Fundraising email.

Hi I am Mitt Romney who is GOP candidate for presidential election 2012. I'm inviting you to be my partner of great plan of bringing back American dream. This dream is to create back American dream that everyone once achieved their dream. Your support and donation will be part of this plan and will be motivation. Thanks, Mitt.

Web Video

www.mittube.com

I have no idea. But I create this web page. This page will be same as You tube. Supporters can be own made short video to share this page. Also, most supporters can link to other pages. It’s easy and cheaper.

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[1] http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

[2] http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/candidates/mitt-romney/

[3] http://www.gallup.com/poll/149612/Voters-Considering-Romney-Obama-Perry.aspx

[4] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/27/mitt-romney-mormon-religion_n_1035233.html

[5] http://www.whorunsgov.com/Profiles/Mitt_Romney

[6] http://www.gallup.com/poll/150482/GOP-Field-Cain-Image-Better-Earlier-Year.aspx

[7] http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/

[8] http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/10/29/mitt-romney-s-fundraising-for-2012-tops-president-obama-in-florida-nevada-michigan-and-colorado.html

[9] http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/

[10] http://bluemassgroup.com/2011/11/it-all-comes-down-to-this-just-how-much-do-gop-voters-hate-mitt-romney/

[11] http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/02/pro-obama-outside-group-targets-romney-in-digital-campaign/